Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci — Jinan Round of 32
Why
Surface+150 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bellucci M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1720Supports Bellucci M.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Bellucci M.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Ymer E.
ELO1 743
Hard ELO1 619
Last 103–7
Age30
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $242K
ELO1 871
Hard ELO1 735
Last 107–3
Age25
Height175 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $662K
Elias Ymer faces Mattia Bellucci in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. Mattia Bellucci holds the paper edge — ranked #86, leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Elias Ymer 95 games in 14 days, Mattia Bellucci 203.
- Head-to-head: Mattia Bellucci leads the head-to-head 2–1, 0–2 on hard. Last met at Shanghai Masters 2026.
- Surface form: Elias Ymer 3 of 10, Mattia Bellucci 7 of 10 on hard recently — Mattia Bellucci the sharper of late.
Common opponents
2 shared · last 12 monthsYmer E. and Bellucci M. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Ymer E. went 1–1 (50%) against them, Bellucci M. 1–1 (50%).
1–150%Ymer E. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–150%Bellucci M. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–2Sets3–2
21–24Games30–27
2–0Tiebreaks1–1
0–0Deciding sets0–1
Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.
vs Humbert U.#32L4-6 3-6s Hertogenbosch · grassL6-7 7-6 4-6Eastbourne · grass
vs Bolt A.#170W7-6(4) 7-6(5)Australian Open · hardW7-5 6-3Halle · grass
Head-to-head
3 meetings · Bellucci M. leads 2–112
Hard: Bellucci M. leads 2–0 · Clay: Ymer E. leads 1–0
- Bellucci M.October 2026Shanghai MastersHard4-6 7-5 7-6(3)
- Bellucci M.August 2024Cary CHHard7-5 7-5
- Ymer E.October 2023Alicante CHClay3-6 7-6 6-3
Evidence
Ymer E.Bellucci M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–77–3 (ahead)
Season win rate49% (23–24)54% (33–28) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17431871 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16191735 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 53 matches
1st-serve points won72%73% (ahead)
Return points won35%37% (ahead)
Aces / match6.26.4 (ahead)
ClutchLast 35 vs 53 matches
Break points saved63%63%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/bellucci-vs-ymer-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).