Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt — Halle Qualifying Final

Halle · ATP · Qualifying Final

ITA

Mattia Bellucci

#78ATP

1700ELO

1624Grass ELO

$414kYTD

$2.3MCAREER

25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Sunday, 14 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

AUS

Alex Bolt

#157ATP

1596ELO

1584Grass ELO

$91kYTD

$2.1MCAREER

33 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLWLLLWWW

Mattia Bellucci faces Alex Bolt in the Halle qualifying final on grass. Mattia Bellucci holds the paper edge — ranked #78, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Alex Bolt dropped the opening set before beating Jamie Mackenzie 4–6 6–1 7–6.
Fatigue load: Mattia Bellucci carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Mattia Bellucci 3 of 4, Alex Bolt 2 of 4 on grass recently — Mattia Bellucci the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC

Bellucci M.67%

Bolt A.33%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bellucci M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Bellucci M.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Bolt A.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.5+40 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.5Grass Elo 1584

6.3Overall Elo 1700

ELO gap

3.7Overall Elo 1596

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

6.97 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

5.76 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.