Madison Keys vs Anna Bondar — US Open Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Round of 64
Madison Keys
USA22
Madison Keys
#23WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
Anna Bondar
HUN
Anna Bondar
#70WTA
1735ELO
1654Hard ELO
29 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLWLWW
Keys M.
vs
Bondar A.

Madison Keys faces Anna Bondar in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #23, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128.

Around the match

  • “I think we all kind of laugh. Jess and I were talking about it the other day. You can kind of feel as the days are getting closer, everyone gets here, you have a week, everyone is excited to be here. And then as the days are slowly getting closer to the first round, racquets are maybe getting a little slippery, you can hear more yelling happening, and you can kind of feel the tension.”

    Keys M.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Keys M.82%
Bondar A.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Keys M. 3–0 · Bondar A. 1–3 · small sample
Keys M. better · different surfaces (Grass × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Keys M.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Bondar A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.3+266 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Hard Elo 1654
8.2Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1734
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 40 matches

Statistics

This season
Keys M.Bondar A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Even
64%
61%
Aces / match·Even
3.9
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Bondar A.

Bondar A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Keys M.Bondar A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
89
0
Break points saved·Dominant
85
29
Break points won·Dominant
92
18
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
6
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
5

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Keys M.Bondar A.
Freshness·Even
81
78

Keys M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Bondar A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30CharlestonR16clayMadison Keys6-2 7-5

Draw