Jacob Fearnley vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Quebec City Round of 32
GBRALT
USAALT
Fearnley J.
Jacob Fearnley faces Mackenzie Mcdonald in the Quebec City round of 32 on hard. Jacob Fearnley holds the paper edge — ranked #107.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Fearnley J. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Jacob Fearnley has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 85 vs Mackenzie Mcdonald's 29).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jacob Fearnley 53 games in 14 days, Mackenzie Mcdonald 32.
- Surface form: Jacob Fearnley 2 of 4, Mackenzie Mcdonald 1 of 4 on hard recently — Jacob Fearnley the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFearnley J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Mcdonald M.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.