Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerChengdu Qualifying Round 2

Chengdu · ATP · Qualifying Round 2
#145ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 17 September 2025
hard
#121ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
Mcdonald M.
4-6 7-5 6-0
Budkov Kjaer N.
Mcdonald M.
4762
Budkov Kjaer N.
6501

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 4-6 7-5 6-0 in the Chengdu qualifying round 2 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer came in ranked #121.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Budkov Kjaer N.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Budkov Kjaer N.
25
Serve
10
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.0
4.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (92 vs 104). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
56
67
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
78
Break points won·Dominant
66
39
Deciding sets·Dominant
45
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
44
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 31 days (−0.7)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9+6 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.1Hard Elo 1598
4.4Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1620
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.8
Surface form
9.3
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
87
100

Mcdonald M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Budkov Kjaer N.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast