Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider — Toronto Round of 16

Toronto · WTA · Round of 16
Jessica Pegula
USA3
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
Diana Shnaider
RUS15
Diana Shnaider
#18WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWLLL
Pegula J.
vs
Shnaider D.

Jessica Pegula faces Diana Shnaider in the Toronto round of 16 on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 4–0, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Around the match

  • “At 3-0 it was so dark, I had a feeling that it was coming. I just wanted to stay super focused to try and build a lead as much as I could. It's always hard because you kind of start rushing sometimes.”

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Pegula J.74%
Shnaider D.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
19 common opponents · Pegula J. 24–9 · Shnaider D. 16–11
Shnaider D. better · different surfaces (Grass × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Shnaider D.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+225 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1833
7.6Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1891
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
H2H
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

40 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Shnaider D.
1st serve in·Even
63%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Even
58%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
1.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Shnaider D.

Shnaider D.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Shnaider D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
84
Break points saved·Clear edge
86
67
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
88
Tiebreaks·Even
90
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Shnaider D.
Freshness·Slight edge
54
65

Pegula J.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 111 games (7d) · Shnaider D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 39%

Head to head

4–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-01WashingtonSFhardJessica Pegula7-5 6-4
2026-03-30CharlestonQFclayJessica Pegula3-6 6-3 6-2
2024-08-26US OpenR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-2
2024-08-05TorontoSFhardJessica Pegula6-4 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Draw