Matej Dodig vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Umag Round of 32
Dodig M.
Matej Dodig faces Pablo Carreno Busta in the Umag round of 32 on clay. Pablo Carreno Busta is the paper favourite — ranked #71, a roughly 340-point clay Elo advantage — but Matej Dodig rides a 4-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Carreno Busta P. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Pablo Carreno Busta has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 78 vs 31).
- Freshness: Matej Dodig comes in with 1 days of rest and 70 games in 14d, vs Pablo Carreno Busta's 9 and 66.
- Win streak: Matej Dodig arrives on a 4-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDodig M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.