Marco Cecchinato vs Duje AjdukovicUmag Qualifying Semi-final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#195ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$149kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
STUDENAC ARENA COURT 1 · 1st on
#281ATP
1480ELO
1462Clay ELO
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLL
Cecchinato M.
6-3 6-4
Ajdukovic D.
Cecchinato M.
662
Ajdukovic D.
340

Marco Cecchinato reeled off five straight games on the way to a 6-3 6-4 win over Duje Ajdukovic in the Umag qualifying semi-final.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 3: Duje Ajdukovic broke serve.
  • Set 2, game 5: Marco Cecchinato broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Marco Cecchinato converted 3 of 7 break points; Duje Ajdukovic converted 1 of 2 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Cecchinato M.
Ajdukovic D.
Break points won
3/7
1/2
Break points saved
1/2
4/7

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Cecchinato M.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Ajdukovic D.

Ajdukovic D.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Cecchinato M.

Serve advantage — Cecchinato M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
58%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
64%
49%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
3.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
42
32
Break points saved·Dominant
89
59
Break points won·Clear edge
20
32
Deciding sets·Clear edge
36
60
Tiebreaks·Dominant
79
21

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC
Cecchinato M.64%
Ajdukovic D.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cecchinato M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+84 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1462
6.2Overall Elo 1576
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1480
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Won 67% in HR (21)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
75
100

Cecchinato M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Ajdukovic D.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 26 km/hHumidity 67%