Lukas Neumayer vs Mili PoljicakUmag Qualifying Semi-final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#167ATP
1621ELO
1598Clay ELO
$133kYTD
$573kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
STUDENAC ARENA COURT 1 · 2nd on
#347ATP
1471ELO
1442Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLWWLL
Neumayer L.
6-4 4-6 6-4
Poljicak M.
Neumayer L.
6462
Poljicak M.
4641

Mili Poljicak reeled off five straight games on the way to a 6-4 4-6 6-4 win over Mili Poljicak in the Umag qualifying semi-final.

Key context

  • Set 3, game 6: A 19-point game with seven deuces went Lukas Neumayer's way.
  • Set 3, game 7: Lukas Neumayer broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Lukas Neumayer converted 3 of 7 break points; Mili Poljicak converted 2 of 8 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Neumayer L.
Poljicak M.
Break points won
3/7
2/8
Break points saved
6/8
4/7

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Neumayer L.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Poljicak M.

Poljicak M.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Neumayer L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Even
61%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.7
4.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
40
24
Break points saved·Slight edge
71
77
Break points won·Dominant
62
7
Deciding sets·Slight edge
9
17
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
87
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC
Neumayer L.75%
Poljicak M.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Neumayer L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+157 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1442
6.9Overall Elo 1621
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1471
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
6.37 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
67
97

Neumayer L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d) · Poljicak M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 29 km/hHumidity 67%