Kimmer Coppejans vs Daniel MichalskiLiege Round of 16

Liege · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#222ATP
1544ELO
1513Clay ELO
32 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWWLWL
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
#302ATP
1435ELO
1386Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLLLLW
Coppejans K.
vs
Michalski D.

Kimmer Coppejans faces Daniel Michalski in the Liege round of 16 on clay. Kimmer Coppejans holds the paper edge — ranked #222, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC
Coppejans K.64%
Michalski D.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Coppejans K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.6+127 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Clay Elo 1386
6.4Overall Elo 1544
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1435
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

34 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
60%
Return points won·Even
44%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.7
2.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Coppejans K.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Michalski D.

Michalski D.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Coppejans K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
44
30
Break points saved·Dominant
67
24
Break points won·Even
29
26
Deciding sets·Slight edge
74
69
Tiebreaks·Dominant
43
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
98
92

Coppejans K.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Michalski D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.