Lisa Zaar vs Varvara Lepchenko — Bastad Round of 32
Zaar L.
Lisa Zaar faces Varvara Lepchenko in the Bastad round of 32 on clay. Varvara Lepchenko is the paper favourite — ranked #175, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage — but Lisa Zaar arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 9 on clay to Varvara Lepchenko's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Lepchenko V. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Lisa Zaar 5 of 9, Varvara Lepchenko 3 of 9 on clay recently — Lisa Zaar the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Varvara Lepchenko carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadLepchenko V.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.