Emiliana Arango vs Lea NilssonBastad

Bastad · CHALLENGER
#97WTA
1595ELO
1539Clay ELO
25 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWLLLWL
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
#486WTA
18 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWWLL
Arango E.
vs
Nilsson L.

Emiliana Arango faces Lea Nilsson in the Bastad match on clay. Emiliana Arango is the paper favourite — ranked #97 — but Lea Nilsson arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on clay to Emiliana Arango's 1.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
6.2Overall Elo 1595
ELO gap
3.8
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.78 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Arango E.Rising
Nilsson L.Surging

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

16 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
71%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
56%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
47%
Service points won·Even
52%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Even
0.7
0.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Arango E.serving39% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Nilsson L.

Nilsson L.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Arango E.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
91

Arango E.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.