Titouan Droguet vs Mathys Erhard — Iasi Round of 32
Droguet T.Titouan Droguet faces Mathys Erhard in the Iasi round of 32 on clay. Titouan Droguet is the paper favourite — ranked #116, a roughly 330-point clay Elo advantage — but Mathys Erhard arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on clay to Titouan Droguet's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Droguet T. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Titouan Droguet 25 games in 14 days, Mathys Erhard 141.
- Under pressure: Titouan Droguet has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 64 vs Mathys Erhard's 24).
- Last match: Mathys Erhard handed Nitin Kumar Sinha a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–2 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDroguet T.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Erhard M.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.