Sinja Kraus vs Claire Liu — Bastad Round of 32

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Sinja Kraus
AUT
Sinja Kraus
#93WTA
1698ELO
1665Clay ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLLWLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
Claire Liu
USA
Claire Liu
#146WTA
1640ELO
1587Clay ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLLWW
Kraus S.
vs
Liu C.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC
Kraus S.67%
Liu C.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kraus S. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kraus S.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Liu C.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.0+79 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1586
5.1Overall Elo 1698
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1640
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kraus S.Stable
Liu C.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

34 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Kraus S.Liu C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
69%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kraus S.serving39% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Liu C.

Liu C.serving41% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Kraus S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kraus S.Liu C.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
56
61
Break points saved·Clear edge
43
64
Break points won·Clear edge
97
78
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
79
Tiebreaks·Dominant
31
67

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kraus S.Liu C.
Freshness·Dominant
91
61

Kraus S.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Liu C.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.