Iva Jovic vs Xiyu Wang — Bad Homburg Round of 32

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 32
Iva Jovic
USA
Iva Jovic
#17WTA
1879ELO
1753Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.4MCAREER
18 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWLLW
—
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
CENTRE COURT · 4th on
Xiyu Wang
CHN
Xiyu Wang
#101WTA
1764ELO
1579Grass ELO
25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLLWW
Jovic I.
vs
Wang X.

Iva Jovic faces Xiyu Wang in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Iva Jovic holds the paper edge — ranked #17, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Jovic I.78%
Wang X.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jovic I. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jovic I.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Wang X.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
7.2+174 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Grass Elo 1579
5.8Overall Elo 1879
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1764
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.68 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
3.54 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Jovic I.Rising
Wang X.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Jovic I.Wang X.
1st serve in·Clear edge
62%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
54%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.3
0.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jovic I.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Wang X.

Wang X.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Jovic I.

Serve advantage — Wang X.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Jovic I.Wang X.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
65

Jovic I.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Wang X.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on CENTRE COURT · not before Not before 5:30 PM · 3 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1Tauson C. v Shnaider D.
  2. 3Osaka N. v Frech M.
  3. 3Sierra S. v Zheng Q.
  4. 4Williams V. v Begu I.
  5. 4Jovic I. v Wang X.This match
  6. 5Eala A. v Mertens E.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 65%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.