Solana Sierra vs Qinwen ZhengBad Homburg Round of 32

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 32
#58WTA
1774ELO
1618Grass ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWLWW
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
#160WTA
1884ELO
1650Grass ELO
$283kYTD
$10MCAREER
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLWLWW
Sierra S.
vs
Zheng Q.

Solana Sierra faces Qinwen Zheng in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Solana Sierra holds the paper edge — ranked #58.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Sierra S.30%
Zheng Q.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zheng Q. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1618
Surface ELO
5.4+32 Grass Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1774
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1884
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Heat performance
8.5Excels in hot weather

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sierra S.Surging
Zheng Q.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 9 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
62%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.2
9.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.5
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sierra S.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Zheng Q.

Zheng Q.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Sierra S.

Serve advantage — Zheng Q.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
94
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
96
Break points won·Even
96
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
99
Tiebreaks·Even
91
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
83
79

Sierra S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Zheng Q.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.