Ann Li vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaBad Homburg Round of 32

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 32
#31WTA
1807ELO
1595Grass ELO
$837kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWLLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#19WTA
1844ELO
1739Grass ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWLWL
Li A.
1-6 7-6 1-6
Alexandrova E.
Li A.
1711
Alexandrova E.
6662

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Ann Li in the Round of 32 at the Bad Homburg grass tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-1, 6-7, 6-1 in favor of Alexandrova. Alexandrova converted 62% of her break points and won 5 service breaks to Li's 1.

Key context

  • Match story: Ekaterina Alexandrova came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 6–7 6–1.

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-19StrasbourgR16clayAnn Li4-6 6-4 6-3
2025-10-06WuhanR32hardEkaterina Alexandrova7-6 6-2
2025-03-31CharlestonR32clayEkaterina Alexandrova6-3 6-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
44%
Service points won·Even
59%
57%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
50%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.1
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
44
52
Break points saved·Dominant
26
70
Break points won·Clear edge
80
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
72
42
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
27
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Li A.41%
Alexandrova E.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Alexandrova E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Grass Elo 1487
Surface ELO
6.7+137 Grass Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1708
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1705
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.44 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
96
79

Li A.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Alexandrova E.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw