Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova — Bad Homburg Round of 32
Samsonova L.
Liudmila Samsonova faces Katerina Siniakova in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Katerina Siniakova holds the paper edge — ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 16.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Liudmila Samsonova 53 games in 14 days, Katerina Siniakova 72.
- Serve & return: Liudmila Samsonova brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 44), Katerina Siniakova the stronger return game (Return Rating 56).
- Head-to-head: Katerina Siniakova leads the head-to-head 2–1, 0–2 on grass. Last met at Bad Homburg 2024.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSamsonova L.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Siniakova K.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-24 | Bad Homburg | R16 | grass | Katerina Siniakova | 6-3 6-7(3) 6-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Montreal | R64 | hard | Liudmila Samsonova | 4-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-06-26 | Bad Homburg | QF | grass | Katerina Siniakova | 7-5 4-6 6-2 |