Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria — Nottingham Round of 16
Yastremska D.
Dayana Yastremska faces Tatjana Maria in the Nottingham round of 16 on grass. Dayana Yastremska is the paper favourite — ranked #49, defending last year's final, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage — but Tatjana Maria has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Yastremska D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Dayana Yastremska 47 games in 14 days, Tatjana Maria 140.
- Under pressure: Dayana Yastremska has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 77 vs Tatjana Maria's 13).
- Last match: Tatjana Maria dropped just 5 games past Janice Tjen.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadYastremska D.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Maria T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-30 | Hua Hin | R16 | hard | Tatjana Maria | 6-0 6-4 |