Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria — Nottingham Quarter-final

Nottingham · WTA · Quarter-final
Marie Bouzkova
CZE
Marie Bouzkova
#27WTA
1835ELO
1666Grass ELO
$805kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 19 June 2026 ·
grass
Tatjana Maria
GER
Tatjana Maria
#117WTA
1618ELO
1618Grass ELO
38 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWLW
Bouzkova M.
vs
Maria T.

Marie Bouzkova faces Tatjana Maria in the Nottingham quarter-final on grass. Marie Bouzkova is the paper favourite — ranked #27, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage — but Tatjana Maria has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings, though none on grass. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Bouzkova M.72%
Maria T.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bouzkova M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bouzkova M.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Maria T.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+48 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Grass Elo 1618
7.1Overall Elo 1835
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1618
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.75 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Bouzkova M.Rising
Maria T.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
Bouzkova M.Maria T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
40%
Break points saved·Even
55%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.6
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bouzkova M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Maria T.

Maria T.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Bouzkova M.

Serve advantage — Bouzkova M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Bouzkova M.Maria T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
70
13
Break points saved·Dominant
90
31
Break points won·Clear edge
98
78
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
9
Tiebreaks·Even
55
59

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Bouzkova M.Maria T.
Freshness·Clear edge
84
66

Bouzkova M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d) · Maria T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24BeijingR128hardMarie Bouzkova6-2 6-4
2020-02-24AcapulcoR32hardTatjana Maria6-4 1-6 6-2
2017-05-22NurnbergR32clayTatjana Maria6-0 6-1
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Bejlek S.[11]
Pliskova K.
6-26-732-6
Mcnally C.
Ruzic A.
6-36-0
Gibson T.
Jones F.
6-35-77-64
Zheng Q.
Sakkari M.[6]
4-67-616-4
Bouzkova M.[4]
Valentova T.
6-36-3
Dart H.
Klugman H.
2-64-6
Dudeney A.
Yastremska D.
4-66-72
Maria T.
Tjen J.[9]
6-36-2
Kessler M.[8]
Volynets K.
3-63-6
Sakatsume H.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
5-72-6
Joint M.
Starodubtseva Y.
7-685-74-6
Bejlek S.[11]
Navarro E.[3]
Li A.[5]
Birrell K.
4-67-636-4
Blinkova A.
Preston T.
6-43-63-6
Golubic V.
Kenin S.
6-24-66-3
Sonmez Z.
Fernandez L.[2]
6-47-61
Pliskova K.
Mcnally C.
6-47-63
Gibson T.
Zheng Q.
6-37-610
Bouzkova M.
Klugman H.
7-56-2
Yastremska D.
Maria T.
1-62-6
Volynets K.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
5-70-1
Starodubtseva Y.
Navarro E.[3]
4-67-634-6
Li A.
Preston T.
5-76-26-2
Golubic V.
Sonmez Z.
7-54-66-4
Pliskova K.
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.
Maria T.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Navarro E.[3]
Li A.
Golubic V.
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