Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren — Ilkley Round of 16

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

GBR

Toby Samuel

#150ATP

1680ELO

1544Grass ELO

$44kYTD

$158kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

DEN

August Holmgren

#148ATP

1549ELO

1615Grass ELO

$66kYTD

$580kCAREER

28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Toby Samuel faces August Holmgren in the Ilkley round of 16 on grass. August Holmgren holds the paper edge — ranked #148, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Toby Samuel dropped the opening set before beating Kyrian Jacquet 1–6 7–6 6–4.
Last match: August Holmgren handed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer a first-set bagel in a 6–0 7–6 win.
Fatigue load: Toby Samuel carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:20 UTC

Samuel T.62%

Holmgren A.38%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Samuel T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Samuel T.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Holmgren A.

6.8

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.1Grass Elo 1544

Surface ELO

5.9+71 Grass Elo edge

6.6Overall Elo 1680

ELO gap

3.4Overall Elo 1549

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.56 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.58 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.