Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez

London · WTA · Round of 32

GBRWC

Katie Boulter

#73WTA

1816ELO

1734Grass ELO

29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLWLWLWLW

2 — 1

Sets

Tuesday, 9 June 2026 · 14:05

grass

ANDY MURRAY ARENA · 2nd on

CAN

Leylah Fernandez

#23WTA

1849ELO

1696Grass ELO

$622kYTD

$8.0MCAREER

23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWWLLLLWW

Katie Boulter fought back from a set down to beat Leylah Fernandez 3-6 7-6 7-5 in the London round of 32.

Key context

Set 1, game 4: Leylah Fernandez broke serve.
Set 3, game 1: Katie Boulter broke serve.
Pressure points: Katie Boulter converted 3 of 6 break points; Leylah Fernandez converted 3 of 8 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC

Boulter K.49%

Fernandez L.51%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Boulter K.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Fernandez L.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

5.5+38 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.5Grass Elo 1696

5.2Overall Elo 1816

ELO gap

4.8Overall Elo 1849

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

5.15 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

4.85 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.3Home country · 12/22 here

Country comfort

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Boulter K.

37⁷72

Fernandez L.

66⁴51