Alexander Bublik vs Jannik Sinner — Halle Round of 16

Halle · ATP · Round of 16
Alexander Bublik
KAZ7
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1802Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
Jannik Sinner
ITA1
Jannik Sinner
#1ATP
2320ELO
2088Grass ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
Bublik A.
3-6 6-3 6-4
Sinner J.
Bublik A.
3662
Sinner J.
6341

Alexander Bublik defeated Jannik Sinner 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the Halle round of 16 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Jannik Sinner came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 6–1, defending the title. Alexander Bublik narrowed the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20ViennaQFhardJannik Sinner6-4 6-4
2025-08-25US OpenR16hardJannik Sinner6-1 6-1 6-1
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQFclayJannik Sinner6-1 7-5 6-0
2023-06-19HalleQFgrassAlexander Bublik7-5 2-0 RET
2023-06-12s HertogenboschR16grassJannik Sinner6-4 6-2
2021-03-22Miami MastersQFhardJannik Sinner7-6(5) 6-4
2021-03-15DubaiR32hardJannik Sinner2-6 7-6(2) 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Sinner J.serving97% hold

wins 79% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Bublik A.Sinner J.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
80%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
59%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
72%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
73%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.8
7.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 94). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bublik A.Sinner J.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
88
100
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
67
100
Deciding sets·Even
99
100
Tiebreaks·Even
96
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bublik A.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Sinner J.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
1.7Grass Elo 1802
Surface ELO
8.3+286 Grass Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2320
5.4
H2H
4.6
5.9
Surface form
9.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bublik A.Sinner J.
Freshness·Slight edge
70
59

Bublik A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Sinner J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
20°CDrizzle
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 62%
Final
Bublik A.[7]
Medvedev D.[4]
6-37-64
Semi-finals
Bublik A.[7]
Khachanov K.[8]
4-67-656-4
Medvedev D.[4]
Zverev A.[1]
7-636-716-4
Quarter-finals
Medvedev D.[4]
Michelsen A.
6-46-3
Zverev A.[1]
Cobolli F.[6]
6-47-66
Bublik A.[7]
Machac T.[7]
7-626-3
Khachanov K.[8]
Etcheverry T.
6-36-2
R16
Bublik A.[7]
Sinner J.[1]
3-66-36-4
Khachanov K.[8]
Auger Aliassime F.[2]
6-31-66-3
Etcheverry T.
Rublev A.[8]
6-36-747-66
Cobolli F.[6]
Shapovalov D.
7-624-67-65
Medvedev D.[4]
Halys Q.
6-27-5
Zverev A.[1]
Sonego L.
3-66-47-62
Michelsen A.
Tsitsipas S.
7-657-5
Machac T.[7]
Marozsan F.
6-26-3
R32
Tsitsipas S.
Darderi L.
6-43-67-65
Khachanov K.[8]
Bergs Z.
7-56-3
Michelsen A.
Cerundolo F.[5]
2-67-56-4
Sinner J.[1]
Hanfmann Y.
7-56-3
Medvedev D.[4]
Altmaier D.
6-36-3
Rublev A.[8]
Ofner S.
6-36-4
Cobolli F.[6]
Fonseca J.
5-77-637-68
Auger Aliassime F.[2]
Djere L.
6-36-766-1
Bublik A.[7]
Muller A.
6-46-4
Zverev A.[1]
Giron M.
6-26-1
Machac T.[7]
De Jong J.
7-53-66-3
Sonego L.
Struff J.
6-36-2
Halys Q.
Bonzi B.
6-46-4
Etcheverry T.
Martinez P.
6-16-3
Shapovalov D.
Humbert U.[6]
6-44-67-64
Marozsan F.
Kecmanovic M.
6-736-46-4