Andrey Rublev vs Alex De MinaurDoha Quarter-final

Doha · ATP · Quarter-final
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 February 2025
hard
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Rublev A.
6-1 3-6 7-6
De Minaur A.
Rublev A.
637102
De Minaur A.
16681

Andrey Rublev defeated Alex De Minaur 6-1 3-6 7-6 in the Doha quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 4–3. Andrey Rublev narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.

Key context

  • Match story: Andrey Rublev came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 3–6 7–6.

Head to head

34
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-12RotterdamQFhardAlex De Minaur7-6(5) 4-6 6-3
2024-01-15Australian OpenR16hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0
2023-10-30Paris MastersQFhardAndrey Rublev4-6 6-3 6-1
2023-02-13RotterdamR32hardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAndrey Rublev2-6 6-1 6-4
2018-11-05NextGen FinalsRRhardAlex De Minaur4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2
2018-07-30WashingtonSFhardAlex De Minaur5-7 7-6(6) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Rublev A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rublev A.De Minaur A.
55
Serve
48
52
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
57%
Service points won·Even
67%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Even
64%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.5
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (80 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
95
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
72
97
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1849
Surface ELO
6.3+87 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1961
4.9
H2H
5.1
4.8
Surface form
8.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Minutes 14d
5.5
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
77

Rublev A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CRain
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 77%