Andrey Rublev vs Alex De Minaur — Australian Open Round of 16

Australian Open · ATP · Round of 16
Andrey Rublev
RUS5
Andrey Rublev
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 15 January 2024
hard
Alex De Minaur
AUS10
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Rublev A.
6-4 6-7 6-7 6-3 6-0
De Minaur A.
Rublev A.
66564663
De Minaur A.
47777302

Andrey Rublev defeated Alex De Minaur 6-4 6-7 6-7 6-3 6-0 in the Australian Open round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's round of 16, but Andrey Rublev had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Andrey Rublev narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.

Key context

Head to head

3–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-17DohaQFhardAndrey Rublev6-1 3-6 7-6(8)
2024-02-12RotterdamQFhardAlex De Minaur7-6(5) 4-6 6-3
2023-10-30Paris MastersQFhardAndrey Rublev4-6 6-3 6-1
2023-02-13RotterdamR32hardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAndrey Rublev2-6 6-1 6-4
2018-11-05NextGen FinalsRRhardAlex De Minaur4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2
2018-07-30WashingtonSFhardAlex De Minaur5-7 7-6(6) 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Rublev A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rublev A.De Minaur A.
55
Serve
48
52
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rublev A.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
56%
Service points won·Even
67%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.9
4.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.7
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (150 vs 166). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rublev A.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
95
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
72
97
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rublev A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
De Minaur A.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1849
Surface ELO
6.3+87 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1961
5.4
H2H
4.6
6.5
Surface form
7.9
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
5.7
Minutes 14d
5.2
4.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.6
Country comfort
7.9
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rublev A.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Clear edge
93
73

Rublev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · De Minaur A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 61%
Final
Sinner J.[4]
Medvedev D.[3]
3-63-66-46-46-3
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[4]
Djokovic N.[1]
6-16-26-766-3
Medvedev D.[3]
Zverev A.[6]
5-73-67-647-656-3
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[4]
Rublev A.[5]
6-47-656-3
Medvedev D.[3]
Hurkacz H.[9]
7-642-66-35-76-4
Zverev A.[6]
Alcaraz C.[2]
6-16-36-726-4
Djokovic N.[1]
Fritz T.[12]
7-634-66-26-3
R16
Fritz T.[12]
Tsitsipas S.[7]
7-635-76-36-3
Sinner J.[4]
Khachanov K.[15]
6-47-56-3
Medvedev D.[3]
Borges N.
6-37-645-76-1
Alcaraz C.[2]
Kecmanovic M.
6-46-46-0
Djokovic N.[1]
Mannarino A.[20]
6-06-06-3
Rublev A.[5]
De Minaur A.[10]
6-46-756-746-36-0
Hurkacz H.[9]
Cazaux A.
7-667-636-4
Zverev A.[6]
Norrie C.[19]
7-53-66-34-67-63
R32
Khachanov K.[15]
Machac T.
6-47-644-67-65
Rublev A.[5]
Korda S.[29]
6-27-666-4
Cazaux A.
Griekspoor T.[28]
6-36-36-1
Alcaraz C.[2]
Shang J.
6-16-11-0
Tsitsipas S.[7]
Van Assche L.
6-36-06-4
Medvedev D.[3]
Auger Aliassime F.[27]
6-36-46-3
Kecmanovic M.
Paul T.[14]
6-43-62-67-676-0
De Minaur A.[10]
Cobolli F.
6-36-36-1
Borges N.
Dimitrov G.[13]
6-736-46-27-66
Mannarino A.[20]
Shelton B.[16]
7-641-66-726-36-4
Fritz T.[12]
Marozsan F.
3-66-46-26-2
Sinner J.[4]
Baez S.[26]
6-06-16-3
Hurkacz H.[9]
Humbert U.[21]
3-66-17-646-3
Zverev A.[6]
Michelsen A.
6-27-646-2
Djokovic N.[1]
Etcheverry T.[30]
6-36-37-62
Norrie C.[19]
Ruud C.[11]
6-46-776-46-3
R64
Tsitsipas S.[7]
Thompson J.
4-67-666-27-64
Sinner J.[4]
De Jong J.
6-26-26-2
Baez S.[26]
Galan D.
7-52-66-26-4
Humbert U.[21]
Zhang Z.
6-25-76-17-63
Norrie C.[19]
Zeppieri G.
3-66-746-26-46-4
Hurkacz H.[9]
Mensik J.
6-796-15-76-16-3
Kecmanovic M.
Struff J.[24]
6-41-67-651-67-69
Fritz T.[12]
Gaston H.
6-06-36-1
Cazaux A.
Rune H.[8]
7-646-44-66-3
Alcaraz C.[2]
Sonego L.
6-46-736-37-63
Etcheverry T.[30]
Monfils G.
6-46-46-4
Mannarino A.[20]
Munar J.
6-36-31-62-66-3
Shelton B.[16]
Oconnell C.
6-46-13-67-65
Van Assche L.
Musetti L.[25]
6-33-66-756-36-0
Khachanov K.[15]
Kovacevic A.
6-46-34-66-3
De Minaur A.[10]
Arnaldi M.
6-36-06-3
Cobolli F.
Kotov P.
7-56-35-76-2
Korda S.[29]
Halys Q.
6-46-46-4
Rublev A.[5]
Eubanks C.
6-46-46-4
Dimitrov G.[13]
Kokkinakis T.
6-36-24-66-4
Borges N.
Davidovich Fokina A.[23]
7-676-36-3
Auger Aliassime F.[27]
Grenier H.
6-13-66-16-2
Zverev A.[6]
Klein L.
7-53-64-67-657-67
Michelsen A.
Lehecka J.[32]
4-66-36-46-4
Ruud C.[11]
Purcell M.
6-36-756-33-67-67
Paul T.[14]
Draper J.
6-23-66-37-5
Shang J.
Nagal S.
2-66-37-56-4
Griekspoor T.[28]
Fils A.
3-66-17-56-4
Medvedev D.[3]
Ruusuvuori E.
3-66-716-47-616-0
Marozsan F.
Cerundolo F.[22]
7-656-46-2
Machac T.
Tiafoe F.[17]
6-46-47-65
Djokovic N.[1]
Popyrin A.
6-34-67-646-3
R128
Popyrin A.
Polmans M.
6-37-636-2
Monfils G.
Hanfmann Y.
6-46-37-5
Baez S.[26]
Wolf J.
3-66-26-33-0
De Minaur A.[10]
Raonic M.
6-766-32-0
Korda S.[29]
Kopriva V.
6-16-42-64-66-2
Zhang Z.
Coria F.
6-47-637-65
Mensik J.
Shapovalov D.
6-37-57-5
Hurkacz H.[9]
Jasika O.
7-646-46-2
Medvedev D.[3]
Atmane T.
5-76-26-41-0
Lehecka J.[32]
Zapata Miralles B.
6-36-26-3
Norrie C.[19]
Varillas J.
6-46-46-2
Ruud C.[11]
Ramos A.
6-16-36-1
Struff J.[24]
Hijikata R.
3-66-36-26-727-68
Kovacevic A.
Tabilo A.
6-727-671-66-16-3
Van Assche L.
Duckworth J.
6-726-33-66-36-3
Zeppieri G.
Lajovic D.
6-33-66-37-63
Griekspoor T.[28]
Safiullin R.
2-63-67-636-47-5
Cobolli F.
Jarry N.[18]
6-43-66-32-67-5
Etcheverry T.[30]
Murray A.
6-46-26-2
Khachanov K.[15]
Altmaier D.
5-76-37-657-63
Fils A.
Vesely J.
4-67-56-26-3
Humbert U.[21]
Goffin D.
6-27-55-76-3
Djokovic N.[1]
Prizmic D.
6-26-756-36-4
Mannarino A.[20]
Wawrinka S.
6-43-65-76-36-0
Munar J.
Shevchenko A.
6-36-36-1
Oconnell C.
Garin C.
3-67-54-66-17-5
Shelton B.[16]
Bautista Agut R.
6-27-627-5
Gaston H.
Carballes Baena R.
6-36-23-66-4
Marozsan F.
Cilic M.
6-12-66-27-5
Musetti L.[25]
Bonzi B.
7-637-644-66-2
Thompson J.
Vukic A.
3-67-636-23-66-4
Tsitsipas S.[7]
Bergs Z.
5-76-16-16-3
Sinner J.[4]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-47-56-3
De Jong J.
Cachin P.
4-66-26-36-4
Galan D.
Kubler J.
2-66-37-634-67-68
Tiafoe F.[17]
Coric B.
6-37-672-66-3
Machac T.
Mochizuki S.
7-56-17-5
Arnaldi M.
Walton A.
7-656-26-4
Kotov P.
Rinderknech A.
7-56-16-766-756-3
Halys Q.
Harris L.
4-67-657-57-62
Rune H.[8]
Nishioka Y.
6-24-67-636-4
Dimitrov G.[13]
Fucsovics M.
4-66-37-616-2
Borges N.
Marterer M.
7-57-636-2
Davidovich Fokina A.[23]
Lestienne C.
6-46-47-65
Auger Aliassime F.[27]
Thiem D.
6-37-56-755-76-3
Grenier H.
Muller A.
2-67-634-66-47-67
Ruusuvuori E.
Kypson P.
4-66-36-47-64
Zverev A.[6]
Koepfer D.
4-66-37-636-3
Michelsen A.
Mccabe J.
7-653-66-16-2
Paul T.[14]
Barrere G.
6-26-36-3
Draper J.
Giron M.
6-43-64-66-06-2
Kecmanovic M.
Watanuki Y.
4-67-56-36-4
Sonego L.
Evans D.
4-67-686-27-64
Kokkinakis T.
Ofner S.
7-612-66-746-17-68
Cerundolo F.[22]
Sweeny D.
3-66-36-42-66-2
Fritz T.[12]
Diaz Acosta F.
4-66-33-66-26-4
Rublev A.[5]
Seyboth Wild T.
7-56-43-64-67-66
Klein L.
Kwon S.
7-604-67-636-3
Eubanks C.
Daniel T.
6-46-26-3
Cazaux A.
Djere L.
6-26-736-23-66-2
Purcell M.
Valkusz M.
3-67-626-47-5
Nagal S.
Bublik A.[31]
6-46-27-65
Shang J.
Mcdonald M.
6-31-63-66-46-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Gasquet R.
7-656-16-2