Andrey Rublev vs Alex De Minaur — Paris Masters Quarter-final

Paris Masters · ATP · Quarter-final
Andrey Rublev
RUS5
Andrey Rublev
#16ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 30 October 2023
hard
Alex De Minaur
AUS13
Alex De Minaur
#5ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Rublev A.
4-6 6-3 6-1
De Minaur A.
Rublev A.
4662
De Minaur A.
6311

Andrey Rublev defeated Alex De Minaur 4-6 6-3 6-1 in the Paris Masters quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's round of 16. Andrey Rublev narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.

Key context

Head to head

3–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-17DohaQFhardAndrey Rublev6-1 3-6 7-6(8)
2024-02-12RotterdamQFhardAlex De Minaur7-6(5) 4-6 6-3
2024-01-15Australian OpenR16hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0
2023-02-13RotterdamR32hardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAndrey Rublev2-6 6-1 6-4
2018-11-05NextGen FinalsRRhardAlex De Minaur4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2
2018-07-30WashingtonSFhardAlex De Minaur5-7 7-6(6) 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Rublev A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rublev A.De Minaur A.
55
Serve
48
52
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rublev A.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
67%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.9
4.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rublev A.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
95
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
72
97
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rublev A.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
De Minaur A.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1849
Surface ELO
6.3+87 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1961
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.9
Surface form
5.7
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Minutes 14d
4.4
7.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
5.8
Country comfort
4.6
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rublev A.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Clear edge
95
80

Rublev A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · De Minaur A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
12°CDrizzle
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 92%
Final
Djokovic N.[1]
Dimitrov G.
6-46-3
Semi-finals
Djokovic N.[1]
Rublev A.[5]
5-77-637-5
Dimitrov G.
Tsitsipas S.[7]
6-36-717-63
Quarter-finals
Dimitrov G.
Hurkacz H.[11]
6-14-66-4
Tsitsipas S.[7]
Khachanov K.[16]
6-36-4
Djokovic N.[1]
Rune H.[6]
7-56-736-4
Rublev A.[5]
De Minaur A.[13]
4-66-36-1
R16
De Minaur A.[13]
Sinner J.[4]
W/O
Khachanov K.[16]
Safiullin R.
4-66-46-2
Dimitrov G.
Bublik A.
6-26-2
Rune H.[6]
Altmaier D.
6-36-3
Rublev A.[5]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-3
Hurkacz H.[11]
Cerundolo F.
6-46-3
Tsitsipas S.[7]
Zverev A.[10]
7-626-4
Djokovic N.[1]
Griekspoor T.
4-67-626-4
R32
Altmaier D.
Fritz T.[9]
W/O
Bublik A.
Jarry N.
7-637-63
Hurkacz H.[11]
Bautista Agut R.
6-36-2
Djokovic N.[1]
Etcheverry T.
6-36-2
Griekspoor T.
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-26-2
Rune H.[6]
Thiem D.
6-46-2
Sinner J.[4]
Mcdonald M.
6-767-56-1
Van De Zandschulp B.
Paul T.[12]
6-42-66-3
Rublev A.[5]
Nishioka Y.
6-46-3
Cerundolo F.
Ruud C.[8]
7-56-4
Dimitrov G.
Medvedev D.[3]
6-36-747-62
Zverev A.[10]
Humbert U.
6-46-737-65
Khachanov K.[16]
Djere L.
6-47-5
Safiullin R.
Alcaraz C.[2]
6-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[7]
Auger Aliassime F.
6-37-64
De Minaur A.[13]
Lajovic D.
4-66-46-4
R64
Bublik A.
Tiafoe F.[14]
6-36-4
Dimitrov G.
Musetti L.
6-26-746-3
Auger Aliassime F.
Struff J.
7-636-4
Humbert U.
Giron M.
6-46-3
Fritz T.[9]
Baez S.
6-16-4
Paul T.[12]
Gasquet R.
0-66-27-66
Griekspoor T.
Eubanks C.
6-726-36-4
Nishioka Y.
Thompson J.
7-654-66-2
Etcheverry T.
Kecmanovic M.
4-67-666-4
Davidovich Fokina A.
Shelton B.[15]
7-645-76-3
Altmaier D.
Fils A.
6-26-4
Thiem D.
Wawrinka S.
3-66-37-5
Lajovic D.
Bonzi B.
7-56-3
De Minaur A.[13]
Murray A.
7-654-67-5
Van De Zandschulp B.
Mannarino A.
6-47-5
Cerundolo F.
Monfils G.
4-67-627-5
Bautista Agut R.
Lehecka J.
6-46-2
Djere L.
Van Assche L.
6-766-46-4
Safiullin R.
Muller A.
7-646-3
Hurkacz H.[11]
Korda S.
6-36-766-3
Khachanov K.[16]
Purcell M.
6-46-4
Mcdonald M.
Wolf J.
1-66-46-2
Zverev A.[10]
Fucsovics M.
4-67-56-4
Jarry N.
Popyrin A.
7-57-66