Alex De Minaur vs Andrey RublevRotterdam Quarter-final

Rotterdam · ATP · Quarter-final
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 February 2024
hard
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
De Minaur A.
7-6 4-6 6-3
Rublev A.
De Minaur A.
77462
Rublev A.
65631

Alex De Minaur defeated Andrey Rublev 7-6 4-6 6-3 in the Rotterdam quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, defending last year's quarter-final. Alex De Minaur narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex De Minaur closed it out in three sets, 7–6 4–6 6–3.

Head to head

34
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-17DohaQFhardAndrey Rublev6-1 3-6 7-6(8)
2024-01-15Australian OpenR16hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0
2023-10-30Paris MastersQFhardAndrey Rublev4-6 6-3 6-1
2023-02-13RotterdamR32hardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAndrey Rublev2-6 6-1 6-4
2018-11-05NextGen FinalsRRhardAlex De Minaur4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2
2018-07-30WashingtonSFhardAlex De Minaur5-7 7-6(6) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

De Minaur A.Rublev A.
48
Serve
55
80
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.3
7.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (166 vs 150). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
95
88
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
97
72
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 28 days (−0.3)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
6.3+87 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Hard Elo 1849
6.2Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1902
2.8
H2H
7.2
6.9
Surface form
7.9
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
94

De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Rublev A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
8°CDrizzle
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 85%