Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka — Cincinnati Semi-final
Cincinnati · WTA · Semi-final
#6WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 19 August 2023 ·
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Muchova K.6-7 6-3 6-2
Sabalenka A.
Muchova K.
64662
Sabalenka A.
77321
Karolina Muchova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-7 6-3 6-2 in the Cincinnati semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, defending last year's semi-final. Karolina Muchova extended the head-to-head to 5–3.
Key context
- Match story: Karolina Muchova dropped the opening set before beating Aryna Sabalenka 6–7 6–3 6–2.
Head to head
4–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-09-25 | Beijing | QF | hard | Karolina Muchova | 7-6 2-6 6-4 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati | SF | hard | Karolina Muchova | 6-7 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023-06-08 | Roland Garros | SF | clay | Karolina Muchova | 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5 |
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | SF | clay | Karolina Muchova | 7-6 6-7 7-5 |
| 2019-10-26 | Zhuhai | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2019-10-22 | Zhuhai | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5 7-6 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.7
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
2.9
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (143 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Slight edge
93
100
Break points saved·Slight edge
83
89
Break points won·Clear edge
85
98
Deciding sets·Even
95
96
Tiebreaks·Even
99
100
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Even
100
100
Muchova K.: 15 days rest · Sabalenka A.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast