Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula BadosaStuttgart Quarter-final

Stuttgart · WTA · Quarter-final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 April 2023
clay
#141WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
Sabalenka A.
4-6 6-4 6-4
Badosa P.
Sabalenka A.
4662
Badosa P.
6441

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Paula Badosa 4-6 6-4 6-4 in the Stuttgart quarter-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2, defending last year's final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

52
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-2
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR32clayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-1
2024-04-15StuttgartR16clayAryna Sabalenka7-6(4) 4-6 3-3 RET
2024-03-18MiamiR64hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2022-04-18StuttgartSFclayAryna Sabalenka7-6(5) 6-4
2021-11-10Guadalajara FinalsRRhardPaula Badosa6-4 6-0
2021-08-16CincinnatiR32hardPaula Badosa5-7 6-2 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
46%
Service points won·Even
63%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
5.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 131). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
93
Break points saved·Even
98
95
Break points won·Slight edge
100
94
Deciding sets·Even
97
95
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+419 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Clay Elo 1684
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1780
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.5
Surface form
6.8
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.1
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
88
58

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
11°CDrizzle
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 78%