Paula Badosa vs Aryna Sabalenka — Cincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
Paula Badosa
ESP
Paula Badosa
#115WTA
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 16 August 2021
hard
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR3
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Badosa P.
5-7 6-2 7-6
Sabalenka A.
Badosa P.
56772
Sabalenka A.
72641

Paula Badosa defeated Aryna Sabalenka 5-7 6-2 7-6 in the Cincinnati round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 6–1, defending last year's round of 16. Paula Badosa narrowed the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-2
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR32clayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-1
2024-04-15StuttgartR16clayAryna Sabalenka7-6(4) 4-6 3-3 RET
2024-03-18MiamiR64hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2023-04-17StuttgartQFclayAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-4 6-4
2022-04-18StuttgartSFclayAryna Sabalenka7-6(5) 6-4
2021-11-10Guadalajara FinalsRRhardPaula Badosa6-4 6-0
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Badosa P.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Badosa P.Sabalenka A.
21
Serve
96
19
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Badosa P.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
59%
63%
Aces / match·Even
4.3
4.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Badosa P.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
98
Break points saved·Even
95
98
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Even
95
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
94
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Badosa P.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Sabalenka A.
8.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1748
Surface ELO
10.0+454 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.5
Surface form
7.0
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.8
Minutes 14d
6.4
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
Country comfort
5.9
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Badosa P.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·Dominant
63
90

Badosa P.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CDrizzle
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw

Final
Barty A.[1]
Teichmann J.
6-36-1
Semi-finals
Teichmann J.
Pliskova K.[5]
6-26-4
Barty A.[1]
Kerber A.
6-27-5
Quarter-finals
Pliskova K.[5]
Badosa P.
7-52-0
Barty A.[1]
Krejcikova B.[9]
6-26-4
Teichmann J.
Bencic B.[10]
6-36-2
Kerber A.
Kvitova P.[11]
6-43-3
R16
Bencic B.[10]
Muchova K.
7-52-1
Pliskova K.[5]
Pegula J.
6-47-65
Barty A.[1]
Azarenka V.[14]
6-06-2
Krejcikova B.[9]
Muguruza G.[8]
6-16-756-2
Kerber A.
Ostapenko J.
4-66-27-5
Kvitova P.[11]
Jabeur O.
6-16-2
Badosa P.
Rybakina E.
6-27-65
Teichmann J.
Osaka N.[2]
3-66-36-3
R32
Pegula J.
Halep S.[12]
W/O
Kvitova P.[11]
Kudermetova V.
6-26-4
Pliskova K.[5]
Putintseva Y.
6-36-2
Badosa P.
Sabalenka A.[3]
5-76-27-64
Muchova K.
Andreescu B.[7]
6-46-2
Bencic B.[10]
Rogers S.
7-616-1
Ostapenko J.
Brady J.[13]
6-725-4
Teichmann J.
Pera B.
6-16-4
Osaka N.[2]
Gauff C.
4-66-36-4
Muguruza G.[8]
Garcia C.
6-46-3
Barty A.[1]
Watson H.
6-47-63
Azarenka V.[14]
Riske Amritraj A.
6-27-5
Krejcikova B.[9]
Yastremska D.
6-17-65
Kerber A.
Svitolina E.[4]
7-52-66-4
Jabeur O.
Swiatek I.[6]
6-36-3
Rybakina E.
Mertens E.[15]
6-36-2
R64
Yastremska D.
Mcnally C.
7-637-61
Azarenka V.[14]
Samsonova L.
6-26-3
Riske Amritraj A.
Fernandez L.
6-26-2
Watson H.
Sasnovich A.
6-23-66-1
Kvitova P.[11]
Keys M.
7-56-4
Pegula J.
Giorgi C.
6-26-2
Kerber A.
Sakkari M.
6-26-2
Ostapenko J.
Zidansek T.
7-56-1
Brady J.[13]
Alexandrova E.
6-37-63
Kudermetova V.
Paolini J.
6-36-2
Putintseva Y.
Zhang S.
6-26-0
Halep S.[12]
Linette M.
6-43-66-1
Badosa P.
Martic P.
4-66-47-69
Mertens E.[15]
Podoroska N.
6-36-4
Rybakina E.
Stosur S.
6-36-3
Rogers S.
Collins D.
6-42-1
Muchova K.
Konta J.
3-67-656-2
Garcia C.
Stephens S.
7-674-66-4
Krejcikova B.[9]
Kasatkina D.
6-36-2
Bencic B.[10]
Vondrousova M.
6-37-5
Pera B.
Peterson R.
6-46-1
Gauff C.
Hsieh S.
6-16-2
Jabeur O.
Kontaveit A.
6-24-67-5
Teichmann J.
Cirstea S.
6-26-0