Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys — Charleston Quarter-final

Charleston · WTA · Quarter-final
Daria Kasatkina
AUS3
Daria Kasatkina
#65WTA
1795ELO
1770Clay ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 3 April 2023
clay
Madison Keys
USA9
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1894Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Kasatkina D.
6-7 6-4 6-2
Keys M.
Kasatkina D.
65662
Keys M.
77421

Daria Kasatkina defeated Madison Keys 6-7 6-4 6-2 in the Charleston quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 10–1, defending last year's round of 16. Daria Kasatkina narrowed the head-to-head to 10–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-06AdelaideQFhardMadison Keys6-1 6-3
2023-06-26EastbourneFgrassMadison Keys6-2 7-6(13)
2022-10-10San DiegoR16hardMadison Keys6-4 6-3
2022-01-03Melbourne 2R16hardDaria Kasatkina7-6(4) 2-6 6-3
2020-01-20Australian OpenR128hardMadison Keys6-3 6-1
2019-09-16OsakaR32hardMadison Keys6-3 6-4
2019-08-12CincinnatiR32hardMadison Keys6-4 6-1
2018-10-29ZhuhaiR16hardMadison Keys6-2 6-4
2017-08-14CincinnatiR32hardMadison Keys6-2 6-1
2016-09-26WuhanR16hardMadison Keys6-1 4-6 6-4
2016-08-08OlympicsQFhardMadison Keys6-3 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Kasatkina D.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
70%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.7
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (184 vs 153). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kasatkina D.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
94
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
96
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
93
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kasatkina D.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Keys M.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1770
Surface ELO
6.4+124 Clay Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
5.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.7
Minutes 14d
8.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
5.4
Country comfort
7.8
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kasatkina D.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
82

Kasatkina D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw

Final
Jabeur O.[2]
Bencic B.[4]
7-666-4
Semi-finals
Jabeur O.[2]
Kasatkina D.[3]
7-57-5
Bencic B.[4]
Pegula J.[1]
7-57-65
Quarter-finals
Jabeur O.[2]
Kalinskaya A.
6-04-1
Pegula J.[1]
Badosa P.[12]
6-37-66
Kasatkina D.[3]
Keys M.[9]
6-756-46-2
Bencic B.[4]
Alexandrova E.[7]
6-36-3
R16
Pegula J.[1]
Begu I.[15]
7-54-66-4
Kasatkina D.[3]
Pera B.
6-37-63
Keys M.[9]
Linette M.[8]
6-23-66-1
Alexandrova E.[7]
Grabher J.
6-46-2
Bencic B.[4]
Rogers S.
4-67-56-2
Badosa P.[12]
Shnaider D.
6-16-3
Kalinskaya A.
Azarenka V.[6]
6-47-65
Jabeur O.[2]
Dolehide C.
6-37-5
R32
Pegula J.[1]
Blinkova A.
6-26-0
Grabher J.
Vickery S.
6-16-2
Keys M.[9]
Baptiste H.
6-16-2
Azarenka V.[6]
Stephens S.
3-66-36-2
Kalinskaya A.
Cornet A.
7-644-66-2
Kasatkina D.[3]
Brengle M.
6-26-1
Badosa P.[12]
Fernandez L.
7-57-66
Bencic B.[4]
Sebov K.
6-06-3
Dolehide C.
Fruhvirtova L.
6-25-76-3
Shnaider D.
Kudermetova V.[5]
6-46-3
Rogers S.
Mcnally C.
6-747-56-1
Jabeur O.[2]
Tsurenko L.
6-36-3
Begu I.[15]
Kenin S.
6-16-4
Alexandrova E.[7]
Putintseva Y.
6-16-3
Linette M.[8]
Gracheva V.
6-737-56-4
Pera B.
Bucsa C.
6-36-4
R64
Sebov K.
Davis L.
4-66-16-2
Rogers S.
Collins D.[13]
6-726-46-1
Putintseva Y.
Svitolina E.
6-736-26-4
Keys M.[9]
Navarro E.
6-46-3
Brengle M.
Kanepi K.
6-36-4
Fruhvirtova L.
Teichmann J.[14]
6-23-66-2
Blinkova A.
Bondar A.
7-676-2
Fernandez L.
Rodina E.
6-36-2
Vickery S.
Day K.
6-46-2
Pera B.
Liu C.
6-46-716-3
Cornet A.
Crawley F.
6-06-2
Gracheva V.
Friedsam A.
7-636-2
Tsurenko L.
Ormaechea P.
6-16-1
Mcnally C.
Niemeier J.
6-46-1
Kalinskaya A.
Kalinina A.[11]
7-666-4
Kenin S.
Sasnovich A.
6-16-756-1
Begu I.[15]
Galfi D.
6-17-5
Badosa P.[12]
Sherif M.
6-36-1
Stephens S.
Chirico L.
3-66-16-2
Dolehide C.
Lisicki S.
6-46-4
Baptiste H.
Wang X.
6-36-3
Grabher J.
Zhang S.[10]
6-41-66-3
Shnaider D.
Parks A.
6-46-3
Bucsa C.
Bouzkova M.[16]
7-56-736-1