Madison Keys vs Daria KasatkinaSan Diego Round of 16

San Diego · WTA · Round of 16
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 October 2022
hard
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Keys M.
6-4 6-3
Kasatkina D.
Keys M.
662
Kasatkina D.
430

Madison Keys defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-4 6-3 in the San Diego round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 9–2. Madison Keys extended the head-to-head to 10–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Madison Keys closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

92
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-06AdelaideQFhardMadison Keys6-1 6-3
2023-06-26EastbourneFgrassMadison Keys6-2 7-6(13)
2023-04-03CharlestonQFclayDaria Kasatkina6-7(5) 6-4 6-2
2022-01-03Melbourne 2R16hardDaria Kasatkina7-6(4) 2-6 6-3
2020-01-20Australian OpenR128hardMadison Keys6-3 6-1
2019-09-16OsakaR32hardMadison Keys6-3 6-4
2019-08-12CincinnatiR32hardMadison Keys6-4 6-1
2018-10-29ZhuhaiR16hardMadison Keys6-2 6-4
2017-08-14CincinnatiR32hardMadison Keys6-2 6-1
2016-09-26WuhanR16hardMadison Keys6-1 4-6 6-4
2016-08-08OlympicsQFhardMadison Keys6-3 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Keys M.Kasatkina D.
36
Serve
0
29
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
54%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
80
Break points won·Slight edge
90
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+163 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1757
6.8Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1795
4.6
H2H
5.4
4.9
Surface form
7.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.9
Minutes 14d
8.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
90

Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast