Jessica Pegula vs Iga SwiatekUnited Cup Semi-final

United Cup · WTA · Semi-final
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 January 2023
hard
#3WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
Pegula J.
6-2 6-2
Swiatek I.
Pegula J.
662
Swiatek I.
220

Jessica Pegula defeated Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-2 in the United Cup semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Iga Swiatek came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 7–4. Jessica Pegula narrowed the head-to-head to 7–5.

Key context

Head to head

47
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-13RomeQFclayIga Swiatek1-6 2-6
2025-06-22Bad HomburgFgrassJessica Pegula6-4 7-5
2024-08-26US OpenQFhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-4
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsFhardIga Swiatek6-1 6-0
2023-08-07MontrealSFhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-7(4) 6-4
2023-02-13DohaFhardIga Swiatek6-3 6-0
2022-10-10San DiegoSFhardIga Swiatek4-6 6-2 6-2
2022-08-29US OpenQFhardIga Swiatek6-3 7-6(4)
2022-05-23Roland GarrosQFclayIga Swiatek6-3 6-2
2022-03-21MiamiSFhardIga Swiatek6-2 7-5
2019-07-29WashingtonR16hardJessica Pegula5-7 6-4 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Swiatek I.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Swiatek I.
68
Serve
67
73
Return
98

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Even
58%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
96
100
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
96
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.5+36 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 2022
5.4Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 2064
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.8
Surface form
8.6
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
91

Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast