

Maria Sakkari defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-2 6-4 in the Fort Worth Finals round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 7–2. Maria Sakkari narrowed the head-to-head to 7–3.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-30 | Cancun Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2023-04-24 | Madrid | SF | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2021-11-10 | Guadalajara Finals | RR | hard | Maria Sakkari | 7-6 6-7 6-3 |
| 2021-01-06 | Abu Dhabi | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2020-02-24 | Doha | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-0 |
| 2020-02-17 | Dubai | R32 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 4-6 6-1 |
| 2019-10-22 | Zhuhai | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2019-08-12 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Maria Sakkari | 6-7 6-4 6-4 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Sakkari M.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 75 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About