Maria Sakkari vs Aryna SabalenkaGuadalajara Finals Round Robin

Guadalajara Finals · WTA · Round Robin
#37WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 10 November 2021
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Sakkari M.
7-6 6-7 6-3
Sabalenka A.
Sakkari M.
776662
Sabalenka A.
617831

Maria Sakkari defeated Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 6-7 6-3 in the Guadalajara Finals round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 7–2. Maria Sakkari narrowed the head-to-head to 7–3.

Key context

  • Match story: Maria Sakkari closed it out in three sets, 7–6 6–7 6–3.

Head to head

27
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-0 6-1
2023-04-24MadridSFclayAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-1
2023-03-06Indian WellsSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-3
2022-10-31Fort Worth FinalsRRhardMaria Sakkari6-2 6-4
2021-01-06Abu DhabiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2020-02-24DohaR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-0
2020-02-17DubaiR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-2 4-6 6-1
2019-10-22ZhuhaiRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
2019-08-12CincinnatiR16hardMaria Sakkari6-7(4) 6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Sakkari M.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sakkari M.Sabalenka A.
24
Serve
96
39
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.5
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.5
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
81
98
Break points saved·Even
94
98
Break points won·Clear edge
87
100
Deciding sets·Clear edge
77
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
83
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 23 days (−0.3)
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 23 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1796
Surface ELO
10.0+405 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1812
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
1.4
H2H
8.6
6.2
Surface form
4.8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
90

Sakkari M.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About