Madison Keys vs Jelena OstapenkoCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
#23WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 15 August 2022
hard
#29WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Keys M.
6-4 7-5
Ostapenko J.
Keys M.
672
Ostapenko J.
450

Madison Keys defeated Jelena Ostapenko 6-4 7-5 in the Cincinnati round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #23, leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's round of 64. Madison Keys extended the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

32
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-06AdelaideR16hardMadison Keys3-6 6-4 6-3
2023-02-13DohaR32hardJelena Ostapenko7-5 6-2
2022-06-20EastbourneR16grassJelena Ostapenko6-3 RET
2019-04-01CharlestonR16clayMadison Keys7-5 6-2
2016-06-13BirminghamQFgrassMadison Keys6-7(1) 6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Ostapenko J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Keys M.Ostapenko J.
36
Serve
10
29
Return
45

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
60%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
53%
Aces / match·Even
4.1
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
94
88
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
79
Break points won·Slight edge
90
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+126 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1794
6.6Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1855
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.8
Surface form
5.2
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.5
Minutes 14d
7.9
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
7.8
Country comfort
5.5
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
87
96

Keys M.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Ostapenko J.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw