Pablo Carreno Busta vs Daniil Medvedev — Tokyo Olympics Quarter-final

Tokyo Olympics · ATP · Quarter-final
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP6
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 24 July 2021
hard
Daniil Medvedev
RUS2
Daniil Medvedev
#9ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Carreno Busta P.
6-2 7-6
Medvedev D.
Carreno Busta P.
6772
Medvedev D.
2650

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Daniil Medvedev 6-2 7-6 in the Tokyo Olympics quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Daniil Medvedev came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 5–1, but Pablo Carreno Busta had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Pablo Carreno Busta narrowed the head-to-head to 5–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–5
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-11-28Davis Cup Finals RR: ESP vs RTFRRhardDaniil Medvedev6-2 7-6(3)
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersQFhardDaniil Medvedev6-1 6-1
2021-06-21MallorcaSFgrassDaniil Medvedev3-6 6-3 6-2
2018-10-29Paris MastersR64hardDaniil Medvedev6-2 6-2
2018-03-05Indian Wells MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-1 7-5
2017-10-16MoscowR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Medvedev D.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve advantage — Medvedev D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Medvedev D.
21
Serve
47
44
Return
94

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Medvedev D.
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.6
7.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (197 vs 198). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Medvedev D.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
96
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Dominant
61
99
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
99
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carreno Busta P.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Medvedev D.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 26 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
1.9Hard Elo 1744
Surface ELO
8.1+218 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1977
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.7
Surface form
7.8
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.1
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
2.0
6.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Carreno Busta P.Medvedev D.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
85

Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Medvedev D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Draw

Bronze
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Djokovic N.[1]
6-46-766-3
Final
Zverev A.[4]
Khachanov K.[12]
6-36-1
Semi-finals
Khachanov K.[12]
Carreno Busta P.[6]
6-36-3
Zverev A.[4]
Djokovic N.[1]
1-66-36-1
Quarter-finals
Khachanov K.[12]
Humbert U.[14]
7-644-66-3
Zverev A.[4]
Chardy J.
6-46-1
Djokovic N.[1]
Nishikori K.
6-26-0
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Medvedev D.[2]
6-27-65
R16
Khachanov K.[12]
Schwartzman D.[8]
6-12-66-1
Chardy J.
Broady L.
7-634-66-1
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Koepfer D.
7-676-3
Zverev A.[4]
Basilashvili N.
6-47-65
Humbert U.[14]
Tsitsipas S.[3]
2-67-646-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Fognini F.[15]
6-23-66-2
Djokovic N.[1]
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
6-36-1
Nishikori K.
Ivashka I.
7-676-0
R32
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
Millman J.
6-46-746-3
Schwartzman D.[8]
Machac T.
6-47-5
Broady L.
Hurkacz H.[7]
7-53-66-3
Nishikori K.
Giron M.
7-653-66-1
Koepfer D.
Purcell M.
6-36-0
Ivashka I.
Kukushkin M.
6-746-36-3
Fognini F.[15]
Gerasimov E.
6-47-64
Humbert U.[14]
Kecmanovic M.
4-67-657-5
Basilashvili N.
Sonego L.[13]
6-43-66-4
Khachanov K.[12]
Duckworth J.
7-56-1
Chardy J.
Karatsev A.[11]
7-54-66-3
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Cilic M.
5-76-46-4
Zverev A.[4]
Galan D.
6-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Tiafoe F.
6-36-4
Medvedev D.[2]
Nagal S.
6-26-1
Djokovic N.[1]
Struff J.
6-46-3
R64
Broady L.
Cerundolo F.
7-56-746-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Bublik A.
6-47-68
Djokovic N.[1]
Dellien H.
6-26-2
Millman J.
Musetti L.
6-36-4
Tiafoe F.
Kwon S.
6-36-2
Struff J.
Monteiro T.
6-36-4
Nagal S.
Istomin D.
6-46-766-4
Gerasimov E.
Simon G.
4-66-36-4
Machac T.
Sousa J.
6-756-46-4
Kukushkin M.
Coria F.
7-647-5
Galan D.
Safwat M.
7-56-1
Koepfer D.
Bagnis F.
3-66-37-5
Kecmanovic M.
Majchrzak K.
6-46-2
Duckworth J.
Klein L.
5-76-37-64
Chardy J.
Barrios Vera T.
6-17-64
Basilashvili N.
Carballes Baena R.
6-36-2
Fognini F.[15]
Sugita Y.
6-46-3
Humbert U.[14]
Andujar P.
7-636-1
Sonego L.[13]
Daniel T.
4-67-667-63
Khachanov K.[12]
Nishioka Y.
3-66-16-2
Karatsev A.[11]
Paul T.
6-36-2
Ivashka I.
Monfils G.[10]
6-44-67-5
Purcell M.
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-47-62
Schwartzman D.[8]
Varillas J.
7-56-4
Hurkacz H.[7]
Saville L.
6-26-4
Nishikori K.
Rublev A.[5]
6-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Kohlschreiber P.
6-33-66-3
Giron M.
Gombos N.
7-643-66-2
Cilic M.
Menezes J.
6-757-57-67
Zverev A.[4]
Lu Y.
6-16-3
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
Sousa P.
6-36-0
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Sandgren T.
7-56-2