Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

UMPIRY

StockholmR16HardTue 10 Nov · 13:00CENTER COURT · Next on

Alex Michelsen(6)ATP #35 · USA71%

VSClear favourite · Michelsen A.

Juan Manuel CerundoloATP #54 · ARG29%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Michelsen A.

71%29%

Clear edge for Michelsen A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Michelsen A.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Cerundolo J.6.3/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+153 Hard Elo edgeSupports Michelsen A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1825Supports Michelsen A.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Cerundolo J.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 040

Hard ELO1 913

Last 105–5

Age22

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $5.0M2026 $1.1M

ELO1 936

Hard ELO1 671

Last 106–4

Age24

Height183 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.7M2026 $1.0M

Alex Michelsen faces Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Stockholm round of 16 on hard. Alex Michelsen is the paper favourite — ranked #35, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alex Michelsen 115 games in 14 days, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 131.
Last match: Alex Michelsen dropped just 5 games past Yannick Hanfmann.
Head-to-head: Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Roland Garros 2025.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Michelsen A. and Cerundolo J. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Michelsen A. went 2–5 (29%) against them, Cerundolo J. 4–1 (80%). Cerundolo J. came out better against 3 of 4 comparable opponents, Michelsen A. against 0.

2–529%Michelsen A. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents4–180%Cerundolo J. · better vs 3

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

7–12Sets8–6

89–99Games73–64

0–3Tiebreaks1–2

1–2Deciding sets3–0

vs Sinner J.#2L5-7 6-7Miami Masters · hardW3-6 2-6 7-5 6-1 6-1Roland Garros · clay
vs Alcaraz C.#3L6-7(1) 6-4 1-6Tokyo · hardL3-6 3-6Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#40L4-6 4-6Shanghai Masters · hardW7-6 6-7 6-3Indian Wells Masters · hard

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Fearnley J.#87L6-3 6-4 2-6 3-6 2-6Wimbledon · grassW6-2Roland Garros · clay
vs Hanfmann Y.#67Hard to compareW6-2 6-3Stockholm · hardW6-4 6-7 6-4Rio de Janeiro · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Cerundolo J. leads 1–0

Cerundolo J.May 2025Roland GarrosClay6-3 6-2 6-4

Evidence

Michelsen A.Cerundolo J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate63% (40–24)59% (39–27)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20401936

Hard-court ELO19131671

Serve vs returnLast 63 vs 61 matches

1st-serve points won72%72%

Return points won38%37%

Aces / match6.05.7

ClutchLast 63 vs 61 matches

Break points saved65%61%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Starts at 13:00

1This match: Michelsen A. v Cerundolo J.This match
2Rune H. v Bergs Z.Not before 18:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 13:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast6°C · Overcast

Wind9 km/h

Humidity71%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Michelsen A.Cerundolo J.

5Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

53Games · 7 days37

4Matches · 14 days5

115Games · 14 days131

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Stockholm Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-10/cerundolo-vs-michelsen-stockholm-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 10 November 2026).