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Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 16

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoR16HardThu 29 Oct · 02:00 UTC
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Osaka N.
79%21%

Clear edge for Osaka N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Osaka N.7.4/10
Dominant favourite
Pohankova M.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+284 Hard Elo edgeSupports Osaka N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1987Supports Osaka N.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO2 130
Hard ELO1 959
Last 107–3
Age29
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $27.2M2026 $2.6M
ELO1 711
Hard ELO1 660
Last 107–3
Age18
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $93K2026 $65K

Naomi Osaka faces Mia Pohankova in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo round of 16 on hard. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #18, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Osaka N. and Pohankova M. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Osaka N. went 1–1 (50%) against them, Pohankova M. 1–1 (50%).

1–150%Osaka N. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–150%Pohankova M. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–2Sets2–3
18–18Games24–26
0–0Tiebreaks1–1
0–0Deciding sets1–0

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Osaka N.Pohankova M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate72% (34–13) (ahead)63% (25–15)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2130 (ahead)1711
Hard-court ELO1959 (ahead)1660
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)68%
Return points won43%44% (ahead)
Aces / match6.0 (ahead)4.4
ClutchLast 45 vs 40 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)60%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Osaka N.Pohankova M.
21 — fresherDays since last match12
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days2
0 — fresherGames · 14 days50
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/osaka-vs-pohankova-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).