Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima

UMPIRY

ViennaR32HardSun 25 Oct · 10:00

Tallon GriekspoorATP #60 · NED28%

VSClear favourite · Nakashima B.

Brandon NakashimaATP #17 · USA72%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Nakashima B.

28%72%

Clear edge for Nakashima B. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Griekspoor T.5.3/10

Clear underdog

Nakashima B.6.2/10

Even match

Why

Surface+11 Hard Elo edgeSupports Nakashima B.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1839Supports Nakashima B.

Recent run4-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Griekspoor T.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Griekspoor T.

This eventReached the quarters here last yearAgainst the prediction · Griekspoor T.

ELO1 904

Hard ELO1 815

Last 104–6

Age30

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $8.3M2026 $1.2M

ELO2 043

Hard ELO1 893

Last 105–5

Age25

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.2M2026 $2.2M

Tallon Griekspoor faces Brandon Nakashima in the Vienna round of 32 on hard. Brandon Nakashima is the paper favourite — ranked #17, defending last year's round of 16 — but Tallon Griekspoor arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 7 on hard to Brandon Nakashima's 3 of 7. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Tallon Griekspoor ahead 1–0 on hard.

Key context

Freshness: Tallon Griekspoor comes in with 1 days of rest and 92 games in 14d, vs Brandon Nakashima's 1 and 118.
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Vienna 2025.
Win streak: Tallon Griekspoor arrives on a 4-match winning run.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Griekspoor T. and Nakashima B. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Griekspoor T. went 3–3 (50%) against them, Nakashima B. 0–5 (0%). Griekspoor T. came out clearly better against 3 of 5 comparable opponents, Nakashima B. against 0.

3–350%Griekspoor T. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents0–50%Nakashima B. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

8–9Sets4–11

79–85Games74–88

2–2Tiebreaks1–4

2–1Deciding sets0–3

vs Zverev A.#2L5-7 0-6United Cup · hardL6-7 7-5 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Shelton B.#4L6-1 1-6 6-7(3) 2-6US Open · hardL3-6 6-7(4)Montreal · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#21W2-6 6-3 7-6(4)European Open - Brussels · hardL7-6 3-6 4-6London · grass

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Blockx A.#27L7-6 3-6 4-6Rome Masters · clayL6-3 3-6 4-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#38W6-2 6-4s Hertogenbosch · grassL3-6 6-4 6-7 6-7Australian Open · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Hard: Griekspoor T. leads 1–0 · Clay: Nakashima B. leads 1–0

Griekspoor T.October 2025ViennaHard7-6 7-6
Nakashima B.May 2022Roland GarrosClay7-6 6-4 6-2

Evidence

Griekspoor T.Nakashima B.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–65–5

Season win rate41% (18–26)63% (38–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19042043

Hard-court ELO18151893

Serve vs returnLast 39 vs 57 matches

1st-serve points won73%78%

Return points won32%35%

Aces / match8.910.2

ClutchLast 39 vs 57 matches

Break points saved60%63%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast7°C · Overcast

Wind7 km/h

Humidity62%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Griekspoor T.Nakashima B.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days3

92Games · 7 days83

3Matches · 14 days4

92Games · 14 days118

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima — Vienna Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/griekspoor-vs-nakashima-vienna-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).