Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Mary Stoiana — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32
Why
Surface+5 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Oliynykova O.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1773Against the prediction · Oliynykova O.
Recent run2-match win streakSupports Stoiana M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 791
Hard ELO1 532
Last 104–6
Age25
EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $911K
ELO1 789
Hard ELO1 688
Last 106–4
Age23
EarningsCareer $421K2026 $260K
Oleksandra Oliynykova faces Mary Stoiana in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Oleksandra Oliynykova is the paper favourite — ranked #51 — but Mary Stoiana arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Oleksandra Oliynykova's 4 of 10.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Oleksandra Oliynykova 33 games in 14 days, Mary Stoiana 44.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Mary Stoiana grades 25 on serve, Oleksandra Oliynykova 63 on return.
- Last match: Mary Stoiana edged Sayaka Ishii in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Common opponents
4 shared · last 12 monthsOliynykova O. and Stoiana M. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Oliynykova O. went 3–2 (60%) against them, Stoiana M. 2–2 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).
3–260%Oliynykova O. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents2–250%Stoiana M. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
6–6Sets4–6
53–53Games45–53
2–0Deciding sets2–0
Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.
vs Eala A.#19L1-6 4-6US Open · hardL1-6 2-6US Open · hard
vs Jeanjean L.#94W7-5 6-1Colina 125 · clayL4-6 4-6Indian Wells · hard
vs Yuan Y.#141L2-6 3-6Beijing · hardW6-3 4-6 6-4US Open · hard
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vs Brancaccio N.#232W2-6 6-3 6-0Antalya 125 2 · clayW7-5 4-6 7-5Australian Open · hard
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Oliynykova O.Stoiana M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–66–4 (ahead)
Season win rate54% (27–23)63% (42–25) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1791 (ahead)1789
Hard-court ELO15321688 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 64 matches
1st-serve points won56%62% (ahead)
Return points won47% (ahead)45%
Aces / match0.71.6 (ahead)
ClutchLast 47 vs 64 matches
Break points saved51%56% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Mary Stoiana — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/oliynykova-vs-stoiana-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).