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James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi — Almaty Round of 16

AlmatyR16HardTue 20 Oct · 11:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Darderi L.
35%65%

Darderi L. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Duckworth J.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Darderi L.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+86 Hard Elo edgeSupports Darderi L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1834Supports Darderi L.
Recent runLost last 2Against the prediction · Duckworth J.
This eventReached the semis here last yearAgainst the prediction · Duckworth J.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 845
Hard ELO1 721
Last 105–5
Age34
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.7M2026 $779K
ELO1 983
Hard ELO1 713
Last 105–5
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.2M2026 $1.8M

James Duckworth faces Luciano Darderi in the Almaty round of 16 on hard. Luciano Darderi holds the paper edge — ranked #23, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Duckworth J. and Darderi L. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Duckworth J. went 2–4 (33%) against them, Darderi L. 3–4 (43%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 2 better-results split).

2–433%Duckworth J. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents3–443%Darderi L. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
4–10Sets8–11
54–73Games85–94
0–1Tiebreaks1–3
0–0Deciding sets1–2
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Duckworth J.Darderi L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate50% (26–26)58% (36–26) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18451983 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1721 (ahead)1713
Serve vs returnLast 46 vs 58 matches
1st-serve points won75% (ahead)72%
Return points won34%38% (ahead)
Aces / match7.6 (ahead)6.1
ClutchLast 46 vs 58 matches
Break points saved70% (ahead)62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast16°C · Clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity27%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Duckworth J.Darderi L.
5Days since last match9 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
20Games · 7 days0 — fresher
2Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
42Games · 14 days19 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi — Almaty Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/darderi-vs-duckworth-almaty-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).