Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny | Jinan Round of 16

UMPIRY

JinanR16HardThu 15 Oct · 12:00COURT 1 · Next on

Shintaro MochizukiATP #123 · JPN46%

VSToss-up

Dane SweenyATP #112 · AUS54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Mochizuki S.6.0/10

Even match

Sweeny D.6.0/10

Even match

Why

Surface+18 Hard Elo edgeSupports Sweeny D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1475Against the prediction · Mochizuki S.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Mochizuki S.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players

ELO1 831

Hard ELO1 656

Last 104–6

Age23

Height175 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.1M2026 $675K

ELO1 816

Hard ELO1 721

Last 106–4

Age25

Height170 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.0M2026 $400K

Shintaro Mochizuki faces Dane Sweeny in the Jinan round of 16 on hard. Dane Sweeny is the paper favourite — ranked #112, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Shintaro Mochizuki has won their only previous meeting.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Shintaro Mochizuki 62 games in 14 days, Dane Sweeny 112.
Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Dane Sweeny grades 10 on serve, Shintaro Mochizuki 66 on return.
Last match: Dane Sweeny advanced when Bernard Tomic retired.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Mochizuki S. and Sweeny D. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Mochizuki S. went 1–1 (50%) against them, Sweeny D. 0–2 (0%).

1–150%Mochizuki S. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–20%Sweeny D. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

3–3Sets0–4

25–25Games12–25

0–0Tiebreaks0–1

1–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Daniel T.#177W2-6 6-2 6-2Shanghai Masters · hardL6-7(6) 2-6Hangzhou · hard
vs Clarke J.#240L4-6 6-3 1-6Miami Masters · hardL2-6 2-6Roland Garros · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Mochizuki S. leads 1–0

Mochizuki S.August 2026MontrealHard1-6 7-6(5) 6-3

Evidence

Mochizuki S.Sweeny D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–66–4

Season win rate42% (23–32)54% (30–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18311816

Hard-court ELO16561721

Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 49 matches

1st-serve points won69%66%

Return points won39%39%

Aces / match3.23.1

ClutchLast 44 vs 49 matches

Break points saved58%60%

When it starts

COURT 1 · Next on · Starts at 12:00

1This match: Mochizuki S. v Sweeny D.This match
2Pavlovic L. v Bellucci M.Not before 13:00
3Ivashka I. v Draxl L.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 1 · 12:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast25°C · Clear

Wind14 km/h

Humidity40%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Mochizuki S.Sweeny D.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days1

21Games · 7 days4

3Matches · 14 days6

62Games · 14 days112

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny — Jinan Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/mochizuki-vs-sweeny-jinan-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).