Ilya Ivashka vs Liam Draxl — Jinan Round of 16
Why
Surface+56 Hard Elo edgeSupports Draxl L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1592Supports Draxl L.
Recent run8-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Ivashka I.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Ivashka I.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 811
Hard ELO1 729
Last 109–1
Age32
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $3.4M2026 $35K
ELO1 773
Hard ELO1 690
Last 107–3
Age24
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $718K2026 $267K
Ilya Ivashka faces Liam Draxl in the Jinan round of 16 on hard. Liam Draxl is the paper favourite — ranked #219, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage — but Ilya Ivashka arrives in form, winning 9 of their last 10 on hard to Liam Draxl's 7 of 10.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ilya Ivashka 34 games in 14 days, Liam Draxl 104.
- Under pressure: Liam Draxl has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 66 vs Ilya Ivashka's 40).
- Last match: Ilya Ivashka advanced when Marat Sharipov retired.
Common opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Ivashka I.Draxl L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate73% (35–13) (ahead)62% (37–23)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1811 (ahead)1773
Hard-court ELO1729 (ahead)1690
Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 51 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)69%
Return points won41%41%
Aces / match4.24.6 (ahead)
ClutchLast 44 vs 51 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)56%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Ilya Ivashka vs Liam Draxl — Jinan Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/draxl-vs-ivashka-jinan-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).