Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci | Jinan Round of 16

UMPIRY

JinanR16HardThu 15 Oct · 13:00COURT 1 · After 1 match

Luka PavlovicATP #207 · FRA24%

VSClear favourite · Bellucci M.

Mattia Bellucci(8)ATP #86 · ITA76%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Bellucci M.

24%76%

Clear edge for Bellucci M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Pavlovic L.4.2/10

Heavy underdog

Bellucci M.7.3/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+214 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bellucci M.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1720Supports Bellucci M.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Pavlovic L.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Pavlovic L.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 746

Hard ELO1 536

Last 105–5

Age26

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $520K2026 $258K

ELO1 874

Hard ELO1 738

Last 108–2

Age25

Height175 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $662K

Luka Pavlovic faces Mattia Bellucci in the Jinan round of 16 on hard. Mattia Bellucci is the paper favourite — ranked #86, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage — but Luka Pavlovic rides a 3-match win streak.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Luka Pavlovic 79 games in 14 days, Mattia Bellucci 184.
Under pressure: Luka Pavlovic has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 60 vs Mattia Bellucci's 23).
Last match: Mattia Bellucci dropped just 3 games past Elias Ymer.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Pavlovic L. and Bellucci M. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Pavlovic L. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Bellucci M. 1–0 (100%).

0–10%Pavlovic L. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Bellucci M. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

1–2Sets2–0

14–18Games12–6

1–0Tiebreaks0–0

0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Muller A.#133L4-6 7-6(6) 3-6Chengdu · hardW6-4 6-2Shanghai Masters · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Pavlovic L.Bellucci M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–58–2

Season win rate53% (28–25)55% (34–28)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17461874

Hard-court ELO15361738

Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 57 matches

1st-serve points won77%73%

Return points won34%37%

Aces / match9.56.3

ClutchLast 53 vs 57 matches

Break points saved65%63%

When it starts

COURT 1 · After 1 match · Not before 13:00

1Mochizuki S. v Sweeny D.Starts at 12:00
2This match: Pavlovic L. v Bellucci M.This match
3Ivashka I. v Draxl L.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 1 · 13:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast26°C · Clear

Wind12 km/h

Humidity38%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Pavlovic L.Bellucci M.

2Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

35Games · 7 days47

4Matches · 14 days8

79Games · 14 days184

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci — Jinan Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/bellucci-vs-pavlovic-jinan-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).