Alexandre Muller vs Luka PavlovicChengdu Qualifying Round of 16

Chengdu · ATP · Qualifying Round of 16
#135ATP
1665ELO
1630Hard ELO
$557kYTD
$4.4MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
#201ATP
1510ELO
1464Hard ELO
$258kYTD
$520kCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWWWW
Muller A.
6-4 6-7 6-3
Pavlovic L.
Muller A.
66662
Pavlovic L.
47831

Alexandre Muller defeated Luka Pavlovic 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 in the Chengdu quarterfinals. Muller converted one of seven break points, while Pavlovic was unable to capitalize on any of his break point chances. Muller served six aces to Pavlovic's 12, and committed three double faults to Pavlovic's four.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Muller A.5/15
Pavlovic L.4/16

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
66%
54%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
65%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
47%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
34%
34%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.9
10.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
60
Break points saved·Even
90
93
Break points won·Clear edge
47
24
Deciding sets·Clear edge
95
71
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Muller A.59%
Pavlovic L.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Muller A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.1+167 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Hard Elo 1464
6.9Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1510
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.27 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
85

Muller A.: 19 days rest · Pavlovic L.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw