Martin Landaluce vs Ilia Simakin — Jinan Round of 32

JinanR32HardMon 12 Oct · 15:00COURT 1 · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
45%55%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Landaluce M.6.1/10
Even match
Simakin I.6.2/10
Even match
Why
Surface+180 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Landaluce M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1726Against the prediction · Landaluce M.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Landaluce M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 838
Hard ELO1 702
Last 103–7
Age20
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.8M2026 $972K
ELO1 789
Hard ELO1 760
Last 109–1
Age22
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $196K2026 $74K

Martin Landaluce faces Ilia Simakin in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. Martin Landaluce is the paper favourite — ranked #73, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage — but Ilia Simakin arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 8 on hard to Martin Landaluce's 2 of 8.

Key context

  • Surface form: Martin Landaluce 2 of 8, Ilia Simakin 7 of 8 on hard recently — Ilia Simakin the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Ilia Simakin carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Landaluce M.Simakin I.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–79–1 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (28–28)71% (40–16) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1838 (ahead)1789
Hard-court ELO17021760 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 42 matches
1st-serve points won70%73% (ahead)
Return points won37%40% (ahead)
Aces / match5.56.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 45 vs 42 matches
Break points saved61%63% (ahead)

When it starts

COURT 1 · After 2 matches · Not before 15:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 1 · 15:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast25°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity43%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Landaluce M.Simakin I.
3Days since last match3
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
20 — fresherGames · 7 days72
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
53 — fresherGames · 14 days72
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Martin Landaluce vs Ilia Simakin — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/landaluce-vs-simakin-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).