Hayato Matsuoka vs James Mccabe | Jinan Qualifying Round of 16

UMPIRY

JinanQ16QualifyingHardMon 12 Oct · 12:00COURT 1 · Next on

Hayato MatsuokaATP #247 · JPN58%

VSSlight edge · Matsuoka H.

James MccabeATP #259 · AUS42%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Matsuoka H.

58%42%

Matsuoka H. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Matsuoka H.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

McCabe J.4.5/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+150 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · McCabe J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1532Against the prediction · McCabe J.

Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Matsuoka H.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · McCabe J.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 658

Hard ELO1 626

Last 106–4

Age21

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $89K2026 $39K

ELO1 673

Hard ELO1 577

Last 102–8

Age23

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $872K2026 $159K

Hayato Matsuoka faces James Mccabe in the Jinan qualifying round of 16 on hard. Hayato Matsuoka holds the paper edge — ranked #247, leading the head-to-head 2–0.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Hayato Matsuoka 0 games in 14 days, James Mccabe 17.
Last match: James Mccabe advanced when Siddhant Banthia retired.
Head-to-head: Hayato Matsuoka leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at Yokkaichi CH 2026.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Matsuoka H. leads 2–0

Matsuoka H.March 2026Yokkaichi CHHard7-5 6-4
Matsuoka H.November 2025Sydney CHHard7-5 6-4

Evidence

Matsuoka H.McCabe J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–42–8

Season win rate55% (30–25)44% (18–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16581673

Hard-court ELO16261577

Serve vs returnLast 39 vs 30 matches

1st-serve points won71%74%

Return points won39%33%

Aces / match4.08.3

ClutchLast 39 vs 30 matches

Break points saved57%61%

When it starts

COURT 1 · Next on · Starts at 12:00

1This match: Matsuoka H. v McCabe J.This match
2Sharipov M. v Delaney J.Not before 13:30
3Landaluce M. v Simakin I.Not before 15:00
4Sun F. v Cui J.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 1 · 12:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast25°C · Overcast

Wind9 km/h

Humidity40%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Matsuoka H.McCabe J.

18Days since last match11

0Matches · 7 days0

0Games · 7 days0

0Matches · 14 days1

0Games · 14 days17

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hayato Matsuoka vs James Mccabe — Jinan Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/matsuoka-vs-mccabe-jinan-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).