Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren — Olbia Round of 32
Luca Nardi faces August Holmgren in the Olbia round of 32 on hard. Luca Nardi holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Luca Nardi 20 games in 14 days, August Holmgren 74.
- Under pressure: August Holmgren has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 43 vs Luca Nardi's 4).
- Head-to-head: Luca Nardi leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at Helsinki CH 2024.
Live Win Probability
i—Nardi L.
—Holmgren A.
Luca NardiAugust Holmgren
Serve flowHolmgren A. unbroken.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Nardi L.Holmgren A.1/1
Set 1
Match momentumLive
Too early to read the momentum
Pre-match context
Nardi L. came in with the higher hard rating (1650 vs 1616) and the head-to-head lead (2–0).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
57%43%
Umpiry Score
5.8/10/105.3
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
2 shared · last 12 monthsNardi L. and Holmgren A. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Nardi L. went 0–2 (0%) against them, Holmgren A. 1–1 (50%).
0–20%Nardi L. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–150%Holmgren A. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
0–4Sets2–2
17–25Games18–20
0–1Tiebreaks1–0
0–0Deciding sets0–1
Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.
vs Virtanen O.#107L4-6 4-6Wimbledon · grassW6-2Roland Garros · clay
vs Guerrieri A.#165L3-6 6-7Umag · clayL3-6 7-6(4) 2-6US Open · hard
Head-to-head
2 meetings · Nardi L. leads 2–020
- Nardi L.November 2024Helsinki CHHard7-6 7-6
- Nardi L.November 2023Kobe CHHard6-3 3-6 7-5
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Nardi L.Holmgren A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–73–7
Season win rate44% (14–18)48% (29–31) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1753 (ahead)1741
Hard-court ELO1650 (ahead)1616
Serve vs returnLast 22 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won68%75% (ahead)
Return points won38% (ahead)34%
Aces / match4.77.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 22 vs 40 matches
Break points saved64%66% (ahead)
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren — Olbia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/holmgren-vs-nardi-olbia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).