Adam Walton vs Marin Cilic | Jinan Round of 32

UMPIRY

JinanR32HardMon 12 Oct · 18:30CENTER COURT · After 2 matches

Adam WaltonATP #98 · AUS48%

VSToss-up

Marin Cilic(7)ATP #80 · CRO52%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Walton A.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Cilic M.6.0/10

Even match

Why

Surface+93 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cilic M.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1800Supports Cilic M.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Cilic M.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Cilic M.

ELO1 827

Hard ELO1 713

Last 104–6

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $763K

ELO1 918

Hard ELO1 804

Last 103–7

Age38

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $33.5M2026 $941K

Adam Walton faces Marin Cilic in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. Marin Cilic is the paper favourite — ranked #80, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Adam Walton arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on hard to Marin Cilic's 1 of 4.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Adam Walton 97 games in 14 days, Marin Cilic 20.
Under pressure: Marin Cilic has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 67 vs Adam Walton's 36).
Head-to-head: Marin Cilic leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Basel 2025.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Walton A. and Cilic M. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Walton A. went 2–1 (67%) against them, Cilic M. 0–4 (0%). Walton A. came out better against 2 of 3 comparable opponents, Cilic M. against 0.

2–167%Walton A. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents0–40%Cilic M. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

5–5Sets1–9

41–42Games34–58

0–0Tiebreaks0–1

1–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Medvedev D.#5W6-2 1-6 6-1 1-6 6-4Roland Garros · clayL2-6 6-3 1-6s Hertogenbosch · grass
vs Landaluce M.#73W6-2 6-3Madrid Masters · clayL4-6 4-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Svajda Z.#82L3-6 4-6 2-6Roland Garros · clayL6-7 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Cilic M. leads 1–0

Cilic M.October 2025BaselHard6-4 6-1

Evidence

Walton A.Cilic M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–63–7

Season win rate58% (42–31)43% (13–17)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18271918

Hard-court ELO17131804

Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 27 matches

1st-serve points won71%77%

Return points won36%35%

Aces / match6.79.5

ClutchLast 53 vs 27 matches

Break points saved62%57%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 2 matches · Not before 18:30

1Ivashka I. v Uchida K.Starts at 12:00
2Draxl L. v Jasika O.Not before 13:30
3This match: Walton A. v Cilic M.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 18:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast22°C · Overcast

Wind5 km/h

Humidity53%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Walton A.Cilic M.

6Days since last match4

1Matches · 7 days1

31Games · 7 days20

5Matches · 14 days1

97Games · 14 days20

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Adam Walton vs Marin Cilic — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/cilic-vs-walton-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).